How we score an election forecast (and what the score does not measure)

<h1> How we score an election forecast (and what the score does not measure) </h1> <p><strong>TL;DR:</strong> We score the reasoning before the outcome. Each answer is rated 0 to 100 on specificity, grounding and calibration by a fixed judge. After certification we add winner accuracy, calibration curves and the Brier score. A model can be wrong and score well; a vague answer always scores badly.<

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